Turkey Should Try to Mediate with İran Despite Limited Room for Maneuver

Wednesday, 30 September 2009 09:43

To avoid being caught in a brawl between the West and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program, Turkey should increase its efforts to mediate between the two sides, even if the room for maneuver is limited, pundits suggest.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will visit Tehran next month to discuss Iran's nuclear program with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Turkish officials were among the first to congratulate him after his controversial re-election in June. The planned trip will be Erdoğan's third since becoming prime minister. During the visit, it is expected that trade agreements will be signed increasing Turkey's trade volume with Iran to $20 billion.

The bilateral trade volume hit $10 billion in 2008, compared to $1 billion in 2000. Iran supplies close to a third of Turkey's gas needs.

The two countries are also planning to establish joint free trade and industrial zones. Turkish Trade and Industry Minister Nihat Ergün, during a recent visit to Van, a border city with Iran, said that establishing free industrial zones with Iran had been suggested by Tehran last year and would be finalized this year.

In addition to boosting economic relations, Turkey also plans to suggest discussing a possible “high-level strategic council,” an enterprise resulting from the recent Turkish foreign policy that not only aims to have “zero problems” with neighbors but also “maximum cooperation.” A high level strategic council agreement would call for joint cabinet meetings at least twice a year and as much economic integration as possible. Turkey has signed similar agreements with Syria and Iraq.

But all these developments come amid a new wave of discussions on additional sanctions against Iran after Tehran's disclosure of a second nuclear enrichment facility.

Iran has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it is constructing a second plant for uranium enrichment. Tehran suggested that it had released the information in line with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which gives a country the right to a full nuclear fuel cycle if used for peaceful purposes. However, US President Barack Obama called the Iranian nuclear facility “a direct challenge to the basic foundation of the nonproliferation regime,” and French President Nicolas Sarkozy accused Tehran of taking the world down a “dangerous” path.

Still, it is expected that Iran and the P5+1, the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany, will hold talks on Oct. 1 in Geneva. Turkey offered to be the host of this meeting, a suggestion welcomed by the West but not commented on by Iran.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoğlu is expected to visit Tehran at the same time as the talks.

Turkey Has Good Reasons to Mediate

Bayram Sinkaya from the Middle East Strategic Research Center (ORSAM) told Today's Zaman that Turkey is trying to mediate between Iran and the West since it is worried about the possibility of being caught in the middle if there were to be a show down. “In such a situation, Turkey is one of the main actors that will be affected, as was the case in Iraq,” Sinkaya said.

When he was asked about a military intervention in Iran, Erdoğan said on Sunday, upon his return to Turkey after attending the UN General Assembly, that it was obvious what had happened in Iraq. “One million people lost their lives. An important civilization came to the brink of collapse,” he said.

Sinkaya said that there are some other reasons Turkey was trying to mediate between the West and Iran. “Actually, if Iran acquires the power to produce nuclear weapons, one of the countries who will not like this will be Turkey because it will harm the equilibrium between the two countries. Turkey is in a position of defending Iran in order to mediate for it. This is not only because of its policy aiming at zero problems with neighbors but for other reasons,” he said.

According to him, the second reason why Turkey wishes to mediate is to be part of the process. “If there are to be negotiations between the West and Iran, these negotiations will be based on shaping the Middle East; there will be talks about giving and taking. Turkey, of course, wants to learn about those bargains, it wants to intervene in them and naturally wants to be part of this process,” Sinkaya underlined.

He pointed out that the third reason for Turkey's effort includes Israel's nuclear capacity and the future of the Middle East. “Some countries in the region, including Turkey, want to use Iran's nuclear power as a bargaining chip to control Israel's nuclear power. They say that if Iran is forced to give up, Israel should first become a part of the NPT.”

Erdoğan said on Sunday that Turkey is completely against nuclear weapons in the Middle East and criticized Israel.

“Israel is not a member of the IAEA, while Iran is. Moreover, phosphorus bombs were used in Gaza. What is this? A weapon of mass destruction,” he underlined, referring to the deadly offensive the Israeli army launched against Gaza last December, which left more than 1,300 people dead. “These issues are never brought to the table, and this personally annoys me as a person who is in an office [that carries with it] responsibility,” Erdoğan said. “That is to say, we need to be fairer. We have to act honestly if we want global peace,” he added.

According to Sinkaya, despite all these reasons and the direct interests of Turkey, it is doubtful if there is any room for Turkey's mediation especially if there are direct talks between the two sides.

Retired Ambassador Temel İskit agrees with Sinkaya, noting that Turkey's efforts to mediate are unrealistic since there are direct talks, but it is useful to play a softening role, although it is doubtful that this role will have any impact.

“My personal idea is that it is not very beneficial to be seen as the defender of Iran against the West in the long run. At the end of the day, Turkey will be tested on it at the UN Security Council as a temporary member. It is hard to imagine Turkey giving a vote of ‘no' or abstaining while the Western countries are saying ‘yes',” İskit told Today's Zaman.

According to him, even if Turkey sides with Western countries when the day comes, its trade with Iran will not be harmed.

“I don't think that the trade volume will drop even $10 for two reasons: We are Iran's door to the West, and they need us; secondly, they know very well that Ankara, at the end of the day, has to side with the West,” he said.

When Erdoğan asked if Turkey would support fresh UN Security Council action against Iran, he did not say “yes” or “no” but pointed out that it is difficult to say. “Without seeing what would be in the resolution, it's difficult to say. We would look at the text, and we would make our contribution and then we would make a decision,” Erdoğan said.

According to Professor Çağrı Erhan from the International Strategic Research Organization (ISRO/USAK), the difficulty facing Turkey's mediation efforts is not only the lack of room for them but the position of the US and Iran.

Erhan points out that US policy is based on putting pressure on Iran and it expects its allies to contribute to this policy, but Turkey, by making trade agreements with and supportive remarks regarding Iran, is in conflict with this policy. “But, on the other hand, for the future of Iraq, especially for the northern part of it, the US administration needs Turkey. By using this as leverage, Turkey can try to convince the US administration,” he said.

Çağrı suggested that maybe Iran is playing a dangerous game and aiming to escalate the situation in order to make bargains with the West. If this is Tehran's policy, it does not need Turkey's mediation, and besides, it is having direct talks with the West anyway. “But Iran knows very well that Turkey is the best for mediation when it is needed,” he added.